I would like to see them review the 1071 rule.
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Original Message:
Sent: 11/18/2024 12:21:00 PM
From: Rob Blackwell
Subject: Tuesday Topic: The Next HFSC Chair Will Be …
The GOP officially won the House last week, completing its election sweep. That means, among other things, that leadership of the House Financial Services Committee will be changing. At this point, the race for the next HFSC chair appears to have narrowed to two men: Reps. Andy Barr, R-KY, and French Hill, R-AR. Both are ramping up their campaigns for the post and seeking to align their agendas with President-elect Donald Trump's.
While bankers are largely pleased with the election results, some have told me privately that the GOP under current HFSC Chair Patrick McHenry, R-NC, focused too much on digital assets and crypto instead of helping community banks.
Those in the race make nods to crypto, but appear more focused on banking. Barr wants to dial back regulations, reform the CFPB, and address the housing crisis through market-based approaches. Hill has an explicit proposal to "make community banking great again," including by reversing "the weaponization of the government."
Both candidates joined Banking with Interest earlier this year to discuss how they would approach chairing the HFSC. To familiarize yourself with their agendas, listen to the conversation with Rep. Andy Barr here and the conversation with Rep. French Hill here.
Which priorities would you like to see the next chair of the HFSC pursue?
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Rob Blackwell
Chief Content Officer and Head of External Affairs
IntraFi
Arlington, VA
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John, It seems that the markets are learning that Quantitative Easing although generally concluded as effective in the environment of the decade following the Great Recession is not a broadly applicable solution to all economic situations. Like steroids and other performance enhancing drugs, QE can have some undesirable, unintended consequences.
The unintended consequences of Quantitative Easing (inflation) have been realized in its application during and since the Pandemic. The bond market can no longer simply see typical economic pressures now as the incentive for U.S. application of QE to drive down treasury rates. For some time, it appears to me that the bond market believed that they were in line for windfalls if rates were anything greater than trivial. The bond buyers didn't underwrite if they really wanted to own a 3% bond for 10 years. Instead, they were lured by the prospect of the government "managing" interest rates down materially and creating a gain for the bond holder.
We have returned to a level of skepticism about the U.S. Treasury's ability to lower bond yields to be much closer to the level of skepticism that the process was regarded before the Great Recession.
In projecting the level of U.S. Treasury yields, I suggest you think about it this way. What interest rates would bond holders want to have if they believe the potential for losses were as great as the potential for gains? In other words, if they believed that the expected value over the ownership period was the yield on the bond, what yield would they seek? Who do you know that wants a yield below 4% for the next 10-30 years?
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Neil Stanley
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Original Message:
Sent: 12-30-2024 10:10
From: John Tyson
Subject: 30-Year U.S. Treasury hits YTD 2024 Yield High of 4.82%
Neil - in light of the slower rate cuts now expected from the FOMC in 2025, how do you see Treasury yields moving in 2025?
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John Tyson
CFO;Chief Financial Officer - CFO
Altamaha Bank & Trust Company
Vidalia, GA
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Original Message:
Sent: 12-27-2024 17:05
From: Neil Stanley
Subject: 30-Year U.S. Treasury hits YTD 2024 Yield High of 4.82%
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Neil Stanley
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Neil Stanley
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Original Message:
Sent: 12-30-2024 10:10
From: John Tyson
Subject: 30-Year U.S. Treasury hits YTD 2024 Yield High of 4.82%
Neil - in light of the slower rate cuts now expected from the FOMC in 2025, how do you see Treasury yields moving in 2025?
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John Tyson
CFO;Chief Financial Officer - CFO
Altamaha Bank & Trust Company
Vidalia, GA
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Original Message:
Sent: 12-27-2024 17:05
From: Neil Stanley
Subject: 30-Year U.S. Treasury hits YTD 2024 Yield High of 4.82%
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Neil Stanley
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