Tuesday Topic: Are We Headed for a Recession?

I have three takes Barb:
1. I know inverted yield curves precede recessions but I don't know if this time it would be different.
2. I have a healthy distrust in the experts whether they're Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs
3. Speaking of Stanley, I'd be more interested in Neil's take than there takes.

Thanks

------------------------------
John Tyson
CFO;Chief Financial Officer
Altamaha Bank & Trust Company
Vidalia, GA
------------------------------
-------------------------------------------
Original Message:
Sent: 03-21-2022 10:24
From: Barb Rehm
Subject: Tuesday Topic: Are We Headed for a Recession?

Expectations of higher interest rates-now a reality-have caused yields of short-term Treasuries to jump in recent months. Meanwhile, concerns over the effect of tighter monetary policy on the economy, Russia's war on Ukraine, and commodity shocks have led yields of longer-term government bonds to rise more slowly. A flattening or inverted yield curve is typically an indicator of a recession. But is that the case today? After all, the U.S. labor market has been strong, and wages have risen sharply. Morgan Stanley strategists argue a downturn is unlikely, while Goldman Sachs says the odds of one occurring in the next year are as high as 35%.

What's your take? How concerned are you about the slope of the yield curve?

------------------------------
Barb Rehm
Senior Managing Director
IntraFi Network
Arlington VA
------------------------------