Data to Make Wise and Weighty Decisions in 2020
Thank you very much for the stats! Having a good baseline and comparing to history says a lot.
Mark
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Mark Bower
EVP CFO
Central Bank
Houston TX
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Original Message:
Sent: 10-11-2020 14:53
From: Neil Stanley
Subject: Data to Make Wise and Weighty Decisions in 2020
Recently I was in a meeting with several bank CEOs where I shared this report from the CDC...

You can find this information at this website... Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
We continued by looking at another format for this data from the CDC...

The bankers I shared this with said they were not familiar with this information and wanted to know if I thought the data was valid. I referenced the fact that births and deaths in the U.S. have been reported for years by the CDC and that no media seems to appear to push a story from this. Based on this I think it is highly likely that it is unbiased and reliable.
Seems to me the weekly death rates in April show why we took action swiftly as a society. Now the question is will we let the data govern a return to more typical behaviors when mortality returns to more typical levels?
Every life is precious, so I say the following with great respect for those who have died with the virus - the data makes me wonder about the life expectancy of those who died with COVID. I wonder how many of those people counted in the COVID death numbers would not have been eligible for life insurance? Seems to me that actuarial science is the science that so far has been left out of the focus on "science".
Like the vast majority of bankers today, I have no training or expertise in medicine or health care. However, as bankers we are in the risk management business and we use data to sort through the vast number of proposals to accept some risks and learn how to mitigate the risks we take.
It is my theory that bankers should be encouraged to view and interpret this data for themselves to help their employees and communities make more rational decisions about this weighty situation. I find it interesting to note that when we look at all people in the U.S. under the age of 65 we have now progressed to the point that in the most recent weeks had fewer deaths than in any of the years from 2015-2019. When you combine the birth data with the death data will the U.S. population not grow significantly during the Pandemic of 2020 and the average age of the population drop a bit? What do you think?
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Neil Stanley
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